Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Schwarzenegger's Popularity Rising

Political Figures: P - Z:

"Arnold Schwarzenegger NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Dec. 9-13, 2004. N=500 adults nationwide.
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'Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. Arnold Schwarzenegger.'"


DATA:

(A% = Percentage answering on poll conducted in Nov. 2003;
B% = Same conducted between 12/9 and 12/13/2004.)

A%/ B%
14 / 16 Very Positive
23 / 28 Somewhat Positive
32 / 31 Neutral
14 / 10 Somewhat Negative
10 / 9 Very Negative
7 / 6 Don't Know Name/Not Sure

My take: The top two categories combined grew from 37% to 44%, a 19% net boost over the 13 months covered (which roughly coincides with the governor's political career, beginning with his inauguration). Statistically speaking, 5% of the overall 7% shift drew from the two negative categories, with the other 2% coming from the neutral and uncertain categories. I'm sure Karl Rove would agree that these numbers indicate a significant movement in public opinion, and all the more since there is no particular campaign in view.

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